For all of that talk about losing the war to win an election. It seems as though McCain is praying for total devastation in the Gulf for political expediency. Prior to the actual landfall McCain and Palin, and their coterie of advisors and SS agents, are in Mississippi for a photo-op. They are scaling back the RNC (by all means the right move). And are said to be planning on doing the acceptance speeches from the disaster zones. Obama, on the other hand, has decided to wait until the disaster has struck, hoping to use his fundraising lists as solicitations for volunteer efforts to aid the damaged areas.
Now. If McCain had any sense of shame he would follow a similar approach. I mean, why go to Mississippi before the hurricane strikes? This could at worst hinder evacuations and at best, well, I don’t think there is really any positive implications to a media frenzy being there.
The saddest part is that when this disaster happened the first time, with Katrina, McCain was holding a birthday cake. So much for not wanting to celebrate during a disaster. I mean this is really opportunism at its most treacherous. A moral flip flop would be more palatable, but I would be giving him far too much credit if I thought that this decision had any kind or moral, rather than political, calculus behind it.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Friday, August 29, 2008
The Future Unseen
As the past 24 hours have made abundantly clear, this election now rests solely on the strategic, rather than the policy, abilities of the two candidates. I’m going to try to predict the strategies that each camp will use below.
For Obama the goal is clear, he must extend the momentum gained over the course of the DNC, thereby staying on the offensive. Punditry widely decried the campaign’s inability to respond to the rovian politics unleashed in the first few weeks of August. As the heat built up Obama remained unusually quiet and decidedly out of the public eye while vacationing in Hawaii. During this period the democratic lead in the national polls dwindled and the race became nearly a dead heat. The low point came at the time of the Biden announcement; concordantly the Hillary camp unleashed unimaginable vitriol toward the Obama cause and the punditry complained that the choice of Biden that largely countered Obama’s finely crafted image of change and independence from the standard Washington Politics.
As the DNC commenced there was a palpable sense of trepidation. And although this sense may have been only minor it was certainly present. But over the course of the DNC everything changed, I thought Hillary’s speech left much to be desired, but that is more of a personal aversion to her speaking style: she doesn’t capture my imagination. But she said what she needed to and provided a decisive catharsis for her large and still devout following. Bill Clinton, on Kerry’s heels, turned the tide. He focused the energy generated by Hillary onto the twin targets of McCain and Obama, bashing the former while providing a much needed, authoritative, endorsement from a man whose esteem is only growing.
And finally Obama. This man, with so much riding on it, didn’t suffice, he overcame, displaying a new controlled burn against McCain. Not one of fire, not one of counterpunches, but more of a generational, almost jewish, satire of McCain’s negativity. This speech, it was the change we were hoping for, a sea change in the Democratic strategic mentality, whence comes the hope that the democrats will finally be setting the course, rather than reacting to dictation.
And this is where we are now. Moving forward, Obama must, he must, stay out of mire, and respond to attacks with the same quiet confidence, the same laissez-faire attitude burnished by the subtle power of satire. And Biden as well. He is known, unlike Obama, for more of a street fighting purely American defense, neatly encapsulated by his “noun-verb-9/11” quip. It is good stuff, but it will be difficult to pull off against a mother of 5 with a handicapped kid. Biden, rather, must overwhelm her with his connections to foreign policy, both international personas and experience. We must come out of September certain only that when diplomacy is required, Biden will be an asset whilst Palin a detriment to success.
Finally, the Clintons will be an invaluable asset, not as team members, but as angry old uncle, from another generation, shouting slanderous remarks from the fringe while entertaining with winsome tales of past glory. Because, and precisely so, they have been in the game so long they can get away with digging at the GOP. Hillary, and no one else, can call out Palin and expose her inexperience. Bill, and few others, can befriend those who may oppose Obama for the only worst reason, and persuade them otherwise.
What it comes down to is that Obama is ahead in the homestretch, he’s the one we want to shoot the final shot, but if played properly, not too cautiously that is, that will be nothing more than comforting insurance.
So, what then is it that McCain can do to turn the tide? Well, for starters, Palin was an excellent choice. She is nearly unassailable, aside from a minor but nonetheless troubling scandal brewing in the Alaskan frontier. Otherwise she was one of the few picks that McCain could have made the day after Obama’s triumphant speech that would almost entirely neuter the success of those spoken words. For all the attacks she’s taken on her ability to be VP, she has certainly passed the first test with flying colors.
On the other hand, that he needed to make a VP decision as a strategic move is a clear indication that the McCain campaign is on its heels. Think Bush selecting Cheney; a big FU to his opposition. The choice of Palin on the other hand, reeks of grudging respect. It was reaction rather than diction; the subjunctive in lieu of the imperative.
Moving forward the McCain camp needs to do two things. One is to bait Biden into coming across as bullying to Palin, she needs to hold serve and be eloquent, nothing more. In fact, from here on out, McCain could hope for nothing more than for the press to speak of her only in relation to attacks from the democrats. If she is silent she will have served well her purpose. The worst case scenario for the GOP would to get into a discussion about Palin with Hillary.
As for McCain, I believe that there is very little that the GOP can do. Perhaps try to bring him down in the debates. If anything he has shown a weakness in on the go one-liners. And if McCain can get some good lines in than he can come across much GW against Kerry: inferior but more likable. This will be an almost impossible task, but the only one that seems to have any hope for success (aside from Rove, whose cynicism and guile is beyond my own cognitive sphere).
For Obama the goal is clear, he must extend the momentum gained over the course of the DNC, thereby staying on the offensive. Punditry widely decried the campaign’s inability to respond to the rovian politics unleashed in the first few weeks of August. As the heat built up Obama remained unusually quiet and decidedly out of the public eye while vacationing in Hawaii. During this period the democratic lead in the national polls dwindled and the race became nearly a dead heat. The low point came at the time of the Biden announcement; concordantly the Hillary camp unleashed unimaginable vitriol toward the Obama cause and the punditry complained that the choice of Biden that largely countered Obama’s finely crafted image of change and independence from the standard Washington Politics.
As the DNC commenced there was a palpable sense of trepidation. And although this sense may have been only minor it was certainly present. But over the course of the DNC everything changed, I thought Hillary’s speech left much to be desired, but that is more of a personal aversion to her speaking style: she doesn’t capture my imagination. But she said what she needed to and provided a decisive catharsis for her large and still devout following. Bill Clinton, on Kerry’s heels, turned the tide. He focused the energy generated by Hillary onto the twin targets of McCain and Obama, bashing the former while providing a much needed, authoritative, endorsement from a man whose esteem is only growing.
And finally Obama. This man, with so much riding on it, didn’t suffice, he overcame, displaying a new controlled burn against McCain. Not one of fire, not one of counterpunches, but more of a generational, almost jewish, satire of McCain’s negativity. This speech, it was the change we were hoping for, a sea change in the Democratic strategic mentality, whence comes the hope that the democrats will finally be setting the course, rather than reacting to dictation.
And this is where we are now. Moving forward, Obama must, he must, stay out of mire, and respond to attacks with the same quiet confidence, the same laissez-faire attitude burnished by the subtle power of satire. And Biden as well. He is known, unlike Obama, for more of a street fighting purely American defense, neatly encapsulated by his “noun-verb-9/11” quip. It is good stuff, but it will be difficult to pull off against a mother of 5 with a handicapped kid. Biden, rather, must overwhelm her with his connections to foreign policy, both international personas and experience. We must come out of September certain only that when diplomacy is required, Biden will be an asset whilst Palin a detriment to success.
Finally, the Clintons will be an invaluable asset, not as team members, but as angry old uncle, from another generation, shouting slanderous remarks from the fringe while entertaining with winsome tales of past glory. Because, and precisely so, they have been in the game so long they can get away with digging at the GOP. Hillary, and no one else, can call out Palin and expose her inexperience. Bill, and few others, can befriend those who may oppose Obama for the only worst reason, and persuade them otherwise.
What it comes down to is that Obama is ahead in the homestretch, he’s the one we want to shoot the final shot, but if played properly, not too cautiously that is, that will be nothing more than comforting insurance.
So, what then is it that McCain can do to turn the tide? Well, for starters, Palin was an excellent choice. She is nearly unassailable, aside from a minor but nonetheless troubling scandal brewing in the Alaskan frontier. Otherwise she was one of the few picks that McCain could have made the day after Obama’s triumphant speech that would almost entirely neuter the success of those spoken words. For all the attacks she’s taken on her ability to be VP, she has certainly passed the first test with flying colors.
On the other hand, that he needed to make a VP decision as a strategic move is a clear indication that the McCain campaign is on its heels. Think Bush selecting Cheney; a big FU to his opposition. The choice of Palin on the other hand, reeks of grudging respect. It was reaction rather than diction; the subjunctive in lieu of the imperative.
Moving forward the McCain camp needs to do two things. One is to bait Biden into coming across as bullying to Palin, she needs to hold serve and be eloquent, nothing more. In fact, from here on out, McCain could hope for nothing more than for the press to speak of her only in relation to attacks from the democrats. If she is silent she will have served well her purpose. The worst case scenario for the GOP would to get into a discussion about Palin with Hillary.
As for McCain, I believe that there is very little that the GOP can do. Perhaps try to bring him down in the debates. If anything he has shown a weakness in on the go one-liners. And if McCain can get some good lines in than he can come across much GW against Kerry: inferior but more likable. This will be an almost impossible task, but the only one that seems to have any hope for success (aside from Rove, whose cynicism and guile is beyond my own cognitive sphere).
The GOP and their Idea of Women
The choice of Palin was certainly a ploy to counter the exuberance of both Obama and his supporters, not to mention a none too subtle grab at Hillary democrats.
For me, though, this choice reinforces a certain misogynist thread very powerful in the GOP mentality. Palin, in my view, fulfills a very strict and subjugated ideal of a woman. She has 5 kids, is attractive in a very conventional sense, is a hockey mom and she supports the relinquishing of control of her body in her anti-choice stance on abortion. She stands in stark opposition to single moms, career oriented women who choose to have small or no families, and, certainly, a whole swath of women who believe that the right to choice, whether in terms of sexuality or reproduction, is unassailable. She stands as an archetype for a very specific ideal of womanhood.
I am sure there are many third wave feminists who would gladly crush me for this view. But I am cynical and I don’t think that Palin was chosen for her own talent, but as a symbol of a new republicanism that is really nothing more than a straw man concealing the same ol’ chauvinism.
For me, though, this choice reinforces a certain misogynist thread very powerful in the GOP mentality. Palin, in my view, fulfills a very strict and subjugated ideal of a woman. She has 5 kids, is attractive in a very conventional sense, is a hockey mom and she supports the relinquishing of control of her body in her anti-choice stance on abortion. She stands in stark opposition to single moms, career oriented women who choose to have small or no families, and, certainly, a whole swath of women who believe that the right to choice, whether in terms of sexuality or reproduction, is unassailable. She stands as an archetype for a very specific ideal of womanhood.
I am sure there are many third wave feminists who would gladly crush me for this view. But I am cynical and I don’t think that Palin was chosen for her own talent, but as a symbol of a new republicanism that is really nothing more than a straw man concealing the same ol’ chauvinism.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
DNC
As a follow up to the prior post, I will now reflect a more conciliatory image of my wholly cynical self. For as much as I believe that the DNC has been a well planned affair with fine speech making, building slowly and deliberately into tomorrow’s finale with Obama, I still have the sneaking fear of a repeat of the last two elections.
But. I feel that this convention has uncovered some gems of political strategy that may serve well the Obama campaign were they to choose the right ones to polish. I think Hillary needs to recede from the spotlight, she is great as a symbol, but her following is too hysterical, too divisive, to be a committed target. Rather than using her to rally her message, Obama must use her message to rally her supporters. This will be crucial.
On the other hand, Bill needs to whistle-stop the entire south this fall. He needs to step in where Hillary must recede. Bill can connect in a way no other living politician can. Including Obama. Bill has the veneer of success emanating from his gilded words. And with one former president in the background, being consciously tied to McCain, Obama needs a second one, who inserts success into the voter’s subconscious, to suggest his candidacy.
Biden was a fine choice, he comes across as smart and humble, with enough of a rough edge to his style to impress humanity. I think this theme, seen in both Biden and Kerry’s speeches, needs to be continued: confirm personal friendships and untie the personal McCain from the Candidate.
Which brings about a larger point about what needs to be the Democratic strategy. They must not try to go negative in the way McCain does, Obama must not appear in commercials that attack McCain. Sure, the stuff that has been used recently is innocuous enough. But it is a slippery slope from there to rovian politics. Rather, negativity needs to be used as it was today. It needs to come from sources who have the esteem (B. Clinton), the pity (Kerry) or both (Gore) of the public. If these figures can make comments that rile McCain, while Obama stays above the fray, with Biden as liason betwixt, then I think Obama has a chance.
But. I feel that this convention has uncovered some gems of political strategy that may serve well the Obama campaign were they to choose the right ones to polish. I think Hillary needs to recede from the spotlight, she is great as a symbol, but her following is too hysterical, too divisive, to be a committed target. Rather than using her to rally her message, Obama must use her message to rally her supporters. This will be crucial.
On the other hand, Bill needs to whistle-stop the entire south this fall. He needs to step in where Hillary must recede. Bill can connect in a way no other living politician can. Including Obama. Bill has the veneer of success emanating from his gilded words. And with one former president in the background, being consciously tied to McCain, Obama needs a second one, who inserts success into the voter’s subconscious, to suggest his candidacy.
Biden was a fine choice, he comes across as smart and humble, with enough of a rough edge to his style to impress humanity. I think this theme, seen in both Biden and Kerry’s speeches, needs to be continued: confirm personal friendships and untie the personal McCain from the Candidate.
Which brings about a larger point about what needs to be the Democratic strategy. They must not try to go negative in the way McCain does, Obama must not appear in commercials that attack McCain. Sure, the stuff that has been used recently is innocuous enough. But it is a slippery slope from there to rovian politics. Rather, negativity needs to be used as it was today. It needs to come from sources who have the esteem (B. Clinton), the pity (Kerry) or both (Gore) of the public. If these figures can make comments that rile McCain, while Obama stays above the fray, with Biden as liason betwixt, then I think Obama has a chance.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Thursday August 24th
Today it ended. On this, a cool clean Kansas night, unhaunted by the usual humidity of summer, I understood more clearly than before, that this election will not be watershed as expected by so many sanguine American youth.
I’m fresh off watching a Bloggingheads video with John McWhorter and Glen Loury contextualized by my following of the presidential race. And, frankly, I think McCain has seized the campaign in the court of public opinion. I am a cynic, always skeptical, and McCain has only fulfilled my cynicism as founded.
This is not to say that I ever believed in the campaignspeak of a ‘fair race’ or a ‘new politics,’ rather that I didn’t think McCain would be able to reanimate the seemingly decrepit war machinery left in ruins by Bush’s recent mismanagement of the American government or the GOP image.
But the case, I am feeling more and more - partly influenced by the recent Harper’s piece by Thomas Frank- remains that I mistook Bush as seperate from the GOP, a man who had some kind of independent ambition or vision, rather than as means for the end of GOP domination of the DC coffers.
The reality is that there are many rich intelligent men who simply cannot afford, quite literally, for the GOP to lose power. Ten times out of ten these savvy businessmen will do a better job of branding, scheming and plotting than well meaning, green-horned do-gooders concerned about democracy.
No one should be fooled. This election is not Obama-McCain, this election is Obama against the Lobby, with McCain as an innocent (I believe that) and unwitting (again, quite literally ) participant.
I’m fresh off watching a Bloggingheads video with John McWhorter and Glen Loury contextualized by my following of the presidential race. And, frankly, I think McCain has seized the campaign in the court of public opinion. I am a cynic, always skeptical, and McCain has only fulfilled my cynicism as founded.
This is not to say that I ever believed in the campaignspeak of a ‘fair race’ or a ‘new politics,’ rather that I didn’t think McCain would be able to reanimate the seemingly decrepit war machinery left in ruins by Bush’s recent mismanagement of the American government or the GOP image.
But the case, I am feeling more and more - partly influenced by the recent Harper’s piece by Thomas Frank- remains that I mistook Bush as seperate from the GOP, a man who had some kind of independent ambition or vision, rather than as means for the end of GOP domination of the DC coffers.
The reality is that there are many rich intelligent men who simply cannot afford, quite literally, for the GOP to lose power. Ten times out of ten these savvy businessmen will do a better job of branding, scheming and plotting than well meaning, green-horned do-gooders concerned about democracy.
No one should be fooled. This election is not Obama-McCain, this election is Obama against the Lobby, with McCain as an innocent (I believe that) and unwitting (again, quite literally ) participant.
No Start In Sight
This is being started as a home for my thoughts. Whether it will ever begin is an open question.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
