For Obama the goal is clear, he must extend the momentum gained over the course of the DNC, thereby staying on the offensive. Punditry widely decried the campaign’s inability to respond to the rovian politics unleashed in the first few weeks of August. As the heat built up Obama remained unusually quiet and decidedly out of the public eye while vacationing in Hawaii. During this period the democratic lead in the national polls dwindled and the race became nearly a dead heat. The low point came at the time of the Biden announcement; concordantly the Hillary camp unleashed unimaginable vitriol toward the Obama cause and the punditry complained that the choice of Biden that largely countered Obama’s finely crafted image of change and independence from the standard Washington Politics.
As the DNC commenced there was a palpable sense of trepidation. And although this sense may have been only minor it was certainly present. But over the course of the DNC everything changed, I thought Hillary’s speech left much to be desired, but that is more of a personal aversion to her speaking style: she doesn’t capture my imagination. But she said what she needed to and provided a decisive catharsis for her large and still devout following. Bill Clinton, on Kerry’s heels, turned the tide. He focused the energy generated by Hillary onto the twin targets of McCain and Obama, bashing the former while providing a much needed, authoritative, endorsement from a man whose esteem is only growing.
And finally Obama. This man, with so much riding on it, didn’t suffice, he overcame, displaying a new controlled burn against McCain. Not one of fire, not one of counterpunches, but more of a generational, almost jewish, satire of McCain’s negativity. This speech, it was the change we were hoping for, a sea change in the Democratic strategic mentality, whence comes the hope that the democrats will finally be setting the course, rather than reacting to dictation.
And this is where we are now. Moving forward, Obama must, he must, stay out of mire, and respond to attacks with the same quiet confidence, the same laissez-faire attitude burnished by the subtle power of satire. And Biden as well. He is known, unlike Obama, for more of a street fighting purely American defense, neatly encapsulated by his “noun-verb-9/11” quip. It is good stuff, but it will be difficult to pull off against a mother of 5 with a handicapped kid. Biden, rather, must overwhelm her with his connections to foreign policy, both international personas and experience. We must come out of September certain only that when diplomacy is required, Biden will be an asset whilst Palin a detriment to success.
Finally, the Clintons will be an invaluable asset, not as team members, but as angry old uncle, from another generation, shouting slanderous remarks from the fringe while entertaining with winsome tales of past glory. Because, and precisely so, they have been in the game so long they can get away with digging at the GOP. Hillary, and no one else, can call out Palin and expose her inexperience. Bill, and few others, can befriend those who may oppose Obama for the only worst reason, and persuade them otherwise.
What it comes down to is that Obama is ahead in the homestretch, he’s the one we want to shoot the final shot, but if played properly, not too cautiously that is, that will be nothing more than comforting insurance.
So, what then is it that McCain can do to turn the tide? Well, for starters, Palin was an excellent choice. She is nearly unassailable, aside from a minor but nonetheless troubling scandal brewing in the Alaskan frontier. Otherwise she was one of the few picks that McCain could have made the day after Obama’s triumphant speech that would almost entirely neuter the success of those spoken words. For all the attacks she’s taken on her ability to be VP, she has certainly passed the first test with flying colors.
On the other hand, that he needed to make a VP decision as a strategic move is a clear indication that the McCain campaign is on its heels. Think Bush selecting Cheney; a big FU to his opposition. The choice of Palin on the other hand, reeks of grudging respect. It was reaction rather than diction; the subjunctive in lieu of the imperative.
Moving forward the McCain camp needs to do two things. One is to bait Biden into coming across as bullying to Palin, she needs to hold serve and be eloquent, nothing more. In fact, from here on out, McCain could hope for nothing more than for the press to speak of her only in relation to attacks from the democrats. If she is silent she will have served well her purpose. The worst case scenario for the GOP would to get into a discussion about Palin with Hillary.
As for McCain, I believe that there is very little that the GOP can do. Perhaps try to bring him down in the debates. If anything he has shown a weakness in on the go one-liners. And if McCain can get some good lines in than he can come across much GW against Kerry: inferior but more likable. This will be an almost impossible task, but the only one that seems to have any hope for success (aside from Rove, whose cynicism and guile is beyond my own cognitive sphere).
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