Why We Lose

The unmistakable result of this “new” form of campaigning- the type that eschews substance for abuse, the one where Ayers and the Keating 5 take on more relevance than the currently plummeting DOW or crashing international markets -the unmistakable result of this is that the election will not have a winner.

As I see it there are two possibilities for this election, either Obama will win a sizable electoral college majority or McCain will sneak by in a close election. Either of these possibilities will leave a president without a clear mandate trying to bridge an insurmountable chasm between the reds and the blues.

If, for instance, Obama comes through the election with 50.5 of the popular vote and 2/3 – 1/3 split on the electoral college, he will be able to claim a clear majority and have what should amount to a mandate. Yet the current tack of the McCain/Palin campaign, while not clearly shifting the overall trend of the polls, is certainly radicalizing the GOP base, which, while shrinking, is ever significant, encompassing an easy 40% of the electorate and clear majority in at least 20 states. This base includes, to go along with many well meaning social conservatives, overt racists, unrepentant xenophobes, cloaked bigots and dormant fascists who have no problem using intimidation as a substitute for political discussion. An Obama victory would not yield a graceful stepping aside by this latter group and I can’t imagine many of these people sitting calmly along and abandoning their zealotry for cooperation.

A McCain victory, similarly, would create a huge swath of disillusioned voters, bringing the mistrust of the electorate to levels more befitting a third world dictatorship than a world democratic leader. After two elections that, to many, stunk of electioneering (between Florida in 00 and Ohio in 04), Obama losing a solid election lead in less than four weeks would never be seen as anything but the result of cynical demonization of Obama or an even worse rigging of the vote. I can’t imagine the uproar and anger a McCain victory would engender.

If you can imagine a peaceful outcome to the current political war, I would be interested in your comments. I for one, have trouble envisioning November 5th.